User blog:Bobnekaro/Realistic Atlantic hurricane season making guide
Sometimes users ask how to make their Atlantic hurricane seasons realistic. There's nothing wrong with unrealistic seasons, though, and they are still encouraged on the wiki. Regardless, I will make a guide for those wondering how to make their seasons as realistic as possible. Note: You do NOT have to follow this guide to make seasons, I'm just making it for those that wish to make realistic seasons. * Place most of the strongest storms in August-October: This is the most important one. A lot of times people make the early or late season too active. The Atlantic hurricane season peaks from roughly late August to mid-October, not in July-August! The tropical Atlantic especially west of 50W is usually quite hostile before August due to strong trade winds, Saharan dust, and strong wind shear. * Include about 1-4 early/late season storms: While most of the peak activity usually occurs from August-October, most seasons have a handful of early and late-season (before August and after mid-October) storms, though most of them are weak, especially in the early season. On rare occasions, include a preseason (most commonly May) or post-season storm. * Do not include a Category 5 hurricane in most seasons: The Atlantic averages a Category 5 hurricane about once every three years. The past three Atlantic hurricane seasons have all featured a Category 5 hurricane, but that's quite unusual: the previous 9 years before 2016 did not have any Atlantic Category 5 hurricanes. * Most commonly, make the strongest storm around 140-155 mph: The most common peak of the strongest storm in a season is a Category 4 hurricane, however this is not always the case. * Do not include seasons with no majors often: Seasons without a major hurricane are quite rare in the Atlantic, and for realistic purposes, you shouldn't have more than one majorless season in a 10-20 year timeframe. * Vary your hurricane/major hurricane ratios: On average, approximately half of tropical storms become hurricanes, and approximately half of those hurricanes are major hurricanes. However, this varies from season to season, so for realistic purposes, you should vary the ratios for each season. * Place your storms in climatogically favored locations: In June, this is in the Gulf of Mexico or off the Southeastern U.S. coast. In July, this is in the Atlantic MDR (though weak), the Gulf of Mexico, or off the United States East Coast (sometimes as far north as the Gulf Stream). In August, this is in the Atlantic MDR, Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico. From late August through September, the entire basin is open for business (but few storms form north of 40 degrees north). In October, shift your tracks westward to the entire Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Subtropical Atlantic. In November, most storms form in the Western Caribbean or Subtropical Atlantic. * Include both short and long lived storms: The average lifespan of an Atlantic TC can vary from about 1-16 days. Include a mix of short-lived and long-lived storms, with more short-lived storms early and late in the season. Most long-lived storms occur near the peak of the season, with the exception of uncommon July MDR storms and November Caribbean storms. * Follow the 30/50 rule for Category 5s: In the Atlantic, nearly all Category 5 hurricanes form south of 30 degrees north and west of 50 degrees west. Michael nearly broke this rule last year, but was barely at 30N. * Do not include many storms south of 10N: Due to the lack of Coriolis force, it is rare to see tropical cyclogenesis south of 10 degrees North, though it does occasionally happen (like we saw with Kirk in 2018). There have been a few TCs forming at 7N-9N, but none south of 7N. * On rare occasions, break these rules: The Atlantic does NOT always follow these rules. Anomalies do happen! Just don't make every season and every storm an anomaly. * Don't include fewer than 7 storms or more than 20 storms often: The Atlantic very rarely has less than 7 or more than 20 storms. Category:Blog posts